Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
