Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
